Panic

I’ve been watching the current panic, and in some quarters, hysteria, over the coronavirus pandemic. Being retired and a homebody, the quarantine measures don’t affect me much at all. I do what I’ve done now for years: write, read, manage my book marketing, watch a little TV, play a game. Oh, I mustn’t forget eating and sleeping — I do those, as well.

That we are in the midst of a pandemic is evident from the more or less worldwide spread of this new virus strain from China.

But, then, we must consider flu — the ordinary flu — a pandemic that occurs every year and we don’t get into much of a flap about it, do we now? And in any given year the flu affects a billion people worldwide, and kills anywhere from 290,000 to 650,000 people. In spite of the flu shot. Granted that isn’t a high mortality rate, but I wouldn’t want to be one of the death numbers.

Thus far (8 am, 23 March 2020), we have 351,083 reported cases worldwide, with 15,337 deaths. And lest we forget, 100,569 have recovered from the disease. The current mortality rate (subject to change, up or down) is 4.4%. That is much higher than the flu, but not as high as some other diseases.

The Ebola outbreak of 2014-16 had a 40% mortality rate. Now THAT is bad. Just imagine if that genie had gotten out of the bottle. What saved the world then, was the fact that the West African nations reported the outbreak right away. Just think if the Chinese had been as honest with the Coronavirus.

SARS is a relative of the Coronavirus, and originated in China. In the SARS pandemic, the mortality rate was 15%. Thank goodness SARS affected far fewer people than Coronavirus.

MERS, originating in Arabia, had a 34% mortality rate. And again, thank goodness, it affected only a small number of people. Otherwise we could have had a genuine catastrophe on our hands.

Of course the 800 pound disease gorilla of modern times was the Spanish Flu of 1918. That affected a third of the world’s population at the time, and killed anywhere from 50 million to 100 million people. At its height, it killed 1 million people a week for 25 weeks running. The Coronavirus stats aren’t anywhere near approaching those numbers. Thank goodness.

The Coronavirus originated in China and so far has affected the Chinese most severely, followed by the Italians, and the Iranians (who were also hard hit by the Spanish Flu). The vast majority of deaths are in those 3 countries. Do keep that in mind.

At present, the percentage of the world’s population that has contracted Coronavirus is .00004%. That is a pretty doggone tiny percentage. The death rate is similarly minuscule.

The Coronavirus is not good, no doubt about it. I don’t want to get it. However, we need to look at this rationally and not emotionally. We aren’t experiencing 40% death rates. Nor are we seeing a million people dying every week.

The actions of the world’s governments may, and I emphasize may, help contain the disease. There’s no reliable data, though, that quarantine is working. The numbers from China’s Communist government can’t be fully trusted because the history of Communist governments shows that they cook the numbers to make themselves look good. And even if quarantine Chinese-style worked, who in the West would want the government imposing those draconian measures? I doubt very many would.

To my mind, though, the greater risk from quarantine measures is shattered economies across the globe. That just might be a bigger issue than the disease itself — affecting far more lives for a far longer period of time.

Every day, around the world, 3,700 people are killed in road traffic accidents. In the 4 months while the Coronavirus has been with us, 447,700 people have died on the world’s roads. Somehow, fifteen thousand deaths doesn’t really compare to nearly half a million. And we do very little to stop the slaughter on our roads. No one has yet to propose we ban motor vehicles. Even the consideration would be considered ludicrous.

Perspective my friends. Reasoned and rational perspective. Coronavirus is bad. There is no cure. But there are many things that have been and are far worse.

Take the same precautions as you would with the flu. The means of spreading are essentially the same. And remember, this disease primarily kills old people. Like me. Don’t panic. Use common sense.

Comments are always welcome! And until next time, happy reading!